As we round out the year, real estate enthusiasts are keen to review the year that was and forecast what 2024 may bring for the Edmonton real estate market. From population increases to interest rate changes and property prices, let's delve into the details and explore the likely trends for the coming year.
Highlights of the 2023 Edmonton Real Estate Market
Despite the global uncertainties, Edmonton's real estate market experienced significant developments in 2023. Key highlights include a 3.5% increase in Edmonton’s population, with more than 45,000 people migrating to Alberta within a three-month period alone. The Bank of Canada interest rates rose 75 basis points in 2023 to 5.0%, impacting mortgage affordability.
In terms of property prices, the average selling price for a single-detached home was $479,000, for a semi-detached home $362,000, for a townhouse $271,000, and for a condo $172,000*. (*Average as of November 2023 for the Greater Edmonton Area.)
The market for single-family homes priced under $500,000 remained hot, and this trend is expected to continue into 2024 due to high demand and limited supply.
Edmonton Real Estate Forecast for 2024
As we look ahead, we foresee some key trends that will shape the Edmonton real estate market in 2024:
Interest Rate Cut Expected
Experts predict a slight cut in interest rates in 2024 by the Bank of Canada. However, the impact won’t be too dramatic even in Edmonton, which continues to be one of the most affordable markets in Canada.
Continued Migration to Alberta
The strong Alberta economy is expected to continue attracting newcomers, driving population increases, and hence housing demand, particularly in more affordable Edmonton compared to Calgary.
First-Time Buyers and Investors Still Driving Market
First-time buyers and investors are expected to continue to dominate the market, particularly for condos, semi-detached homes, and single-family homes in the under-$500,000 range. This could potentially shift the Edmonton market to a seller’s market during the peak sales months of 2024.
Residential Prices Expected to Increase
While the average Edmonton sale price decreased by 4.3% from 2022 to 2023, an increase of about 4% is predicted for 2024. Home sales transactions, on the other hand, are expected to decrease by about 5% in 2024.
2024 Outlook: A Favourable Forecast for Edmonton
The Edmonton real estate market forecast for 2024 is quite promising. A robust provincial economy, continued population growth, and a possible interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada will all contribute to a stable property market.
Edmonton’s affordable property market has attracted a wave of inter-provincial migration, with approximately 40,000 new residents in 2022 alone. This trend is expected to continue into 2024, bolstering demand, particularly for homes under $500,000.
However, affordability concerns due to high mortgage rates may continue to impact the market, particularly in the $600,000+ range, limiting the buying power of move-up buyers.
With all these factors at play, the next six to nine months may present a unique window of opportunity for potential buyers, particularly those from outside the province, to secure affordable properties in Edmonton. The city's affordability, in comparison to other major Canadian markets such as Toronto, makes it an attractive investment opportunity that may not last much longer.
As we look to 2024, we’re excited to see what the Edmonton real estate market will bring. Whether you're a first-time buyer, an investor, or a homeowner looking to sell, it's vital to stay informed about these market trends to make the best possible decisions. After all, as we always say, those who refuse to settle for the ordinary deserve the best.
Want to know more and discuss your 2024 strategies? Contact us today